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June 29th, 2010: Update 1 – Pre-Market

Posted by pugsma on June 29, 2010

9:27am EST:  Looks like wave v-1-[C] has had 4 waves put in in the ES Futures with the 4-wave again being a triangle/rectangle.  Wave 5-v-1-[C] should touch the ES 1050 (1054 cash) target.

8:01am EST:  ES Futures have traded down to 1055 (1059 cash).  Obviously now we know that the contracting triangle was a continuation triangle for the wave-iv-1-[C]-P2.  As I stated last night, the target for this wave v, if v=i is ES 1050 (1054 cash).   There is an open gap at the 1051 to 1059 area to provide support in the cash market.  Once wave 1-[C]-P2 bottoms around ES 1050 (1054 cash), I’m looking for a wave 2-[C]-P2 bounce of 38% ( ES 1080, 1084 cash) to 62% (ES 1098, 1102 cash).

One thing to watch out for is some type of panic selling as we approach 1050 and then 1040 if we don’t get a quick bounce.  The third trip to this critical area could cause quite a scare and produce another flash crash.  Just remember that my primary count is a wave [C]-P2 down and bottom of [C]-P2 is likelyto be in the 950 area.  So any wave 2 of [C]-P2 bounce could be weak.   Wave C’s are very much like wave 3’s and they typically don’t provide good opportunities to “get in” or “get out” if you weren’t set-up correctly when they began.

ES Futures (7:33am):

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