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June 25th, 2010: Update 4 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on June 25, 2010

8:30pm EST:  A pretty unimpressive day for the start of wave 2-[C]-P2  bounce to the 1100 to 1110 area.  I have tenatively labeled the move from 1067 to 1084 as wave a-2 and the drop back to 1075 as b-2.  So on Monday if wave c=a then we would get 1092 or a 38% retrace to complete 2-[C]-P2.  I think we might see c=1.62a or a target of 1103 which would be close to the 62% retrace.  Of today’s move could just be the i-ii of a-2 and a-2 will reach much higher mean 2-[C] will be higher.

The volume on the SP-500 was moderately high today with a slightly positve close.  The 50-day SMA has fallen to 1127 and the 200-day SMA has risen to 1112.  The 50-day under the 200-day SMA DEATH CROSS is rapidly approaching now.  If the SP-500 does not get a rally going to exceed 1112 next week, then the DEATH CROSS will happen by the end of next week. The 13-day EMA is headed back down and sits are 1092.  So 1092 on Monday maybe the target for 2-[C] up before the start of a devastating wave 3-[C] down.

One big divergence that a reader pointed out to me is the Dr Copper after suffering a 62% drop, has now gone back up to exceed the old high when the SP-500 was at 1131.  So could Dr Copper, which suffered it’s 62% drop a week ahead of the SP-500 62% drop to 1067 and has now exceeded the first recovery high,  be telling us the that alternate count will play out that sasy the SP-500 will rise back above 1131 to the 1150 to 1180 area?   Hmmm…bares watching next week.

Enjoy your weekend.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

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