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June 24th, 2010: Update 3 – Intra-day Morning #2

Posted by pugsma on June 24, 2010

10:45am EST:  This is a public intra-day alert for all of my readers.  If the 1079 level is taken out now or after a back-test of the 1105 to 1110 area (200-day SMA) on the next near-term bounce, then the alternate #2 (shown below) will become my primary count.   Notice that in this count, wave 1-[C]-P2 has been underday since the 1131 high and is nearing completion.  The next near term bounce is wave 2-[C]-P2 and would be the last chance to dump long positions and/or get short before a major drop over the next 1 to 3 months.  The 50-day vs 200-day SMA DEATH CROSS would occur, but by then the SP-500 could be south fo 1040.  Targets for this count are the 50% P1 retrace of 943, which also agrees with [C]=[A] => 952.  Another target would be the 62% P1 retrace of 870, which also agrees with [C]=1.62[A] => 841.   The level of 870 is also the large head and shoulders target if the 1040 neck-line breaks.

There is good reason to be very careful here at the 1080 level and then of course at the 1040 level (neck line).   The next 2 to 5 trading days should give us the clues we need to decide on the correct primary count.  It’s going to take a save of the 1080 level today and then a solid push back through 1110, for the current primary count to survive that is predicting a re-test of the 1220 level in wave [B]-P2 in late July or early August.

SP-500 Daily Candles Alternate #2 (10:10am):

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