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June 23rd, 2010: Update 2 – Intra-day Morning

Posted by pugsma on June 23, 2010

11:15am EST:  The drop to 1085 (ES 1081) this morning is little more than I expected.  The 50% retrace target was 1091, which I though would hold as support.  The 62% retrace target is 1081.  There is good suppport at 1079 to 1081 on both the 15-min and 60-min charts.  So that is the line  in the sand now for this wave down.  If it breaks, then new lows below 1041 are immediately back on the table.   In this case there would be a new 2nd alternate count (similar to 1st alt) showing 1131 as the top of wave C-[B]-P2 and then 1-[C]-P2 down is underway.   Like the 1st alt count, this 2nd alt count calls for new lows in the 943 range.  Remember the 1st alt count is calling for a move to 1150 before this aggresssive move down begins.  So we need to watch closely the 1079/1081 area the rest of today.  I’m not going place the 2nd alternate count on then charts unless this 1080 area breaks down.

The magnitude of this drop from 1131 to 1085, indicates a wave (2) of the primary count or a wave B of the altenrate count.   In both cases an aggressive wave (3) or wave C should begin once this down move terminates.  So I’m sticking with my call for 1150 to 1170 over the next 2 to 3 weeks (assuming 1079/1081 support holds).

SP-500 15-min real-time chart link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=f6f0c4c2-d96c-4fd3-b575-368cf033ab93

SP-500 15-min Chart (11:00am):

SP-500 60-min Chart (11:00am):

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