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June 23, 2010: Update 4 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on June 23, 2010

5:00pm EST:  Primary count has a wave (3) up under-way towards 1170 and the alternate count as a wave C up under-way towards 1150.  For both counts the 1079/1081 area needs to hold as support.  Below 1079, I would likely drop both counts and call 1131 the top of C-[B]-P2.  This would indicate a move down in wave 1-[C]-P2 is underway with [C]-P2 ultimately headed to 943 (50% retrace of P1).   So once again we are at the cliff (1080 area now vs 1040 in early June) for the bearish count to take over.  The bulls have hold the 1085 pivot area and build some upward momentum or the Death Cross is going occur setting the stage for a break of 1040.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

4:30pm EST:  Maintaining the 1085 pivot is a key now.  Noitce on the daily candle chart how after each rally off the 1040 pivot low (i.e. Nov-09, Feb-10, and June-10) that once 1085 was crossed and the 1120 upper pivot was hit the next back-test of the 1085 level always held resulting in a significant rally.  Also, today’s close at 1092 was just above the 20-day SMA of 1089 after testing the 1085 pivot in the morning.

Also, the 50-day SMA (1133) going below the 200-day SMA (1111) DEATH CROSS is rapidly approaching and staying above the 1085 pivot is key to preventing this.  One more drop to 1040 pivot low would certainly produce the DEATH CROSS (i.e. opposite of the Golden Cross) that occured in June 2009.

SP-500 Daily Candles (EOD):

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