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June 22nd, 2010: Update 1 – Pre-Market

Posted by pugsma on June 22, 2010

7:31am EST:  ES Futures have traded down to 1103 (1107 cash equiv.).  I’m looking for a drop to at least ES 1101 (1105 cash) support for this wave (4)-A-[B]-P2.  Other possible targets are the 38% retrace at ES 1096 (1100 cash) or the 50% retrace at 1086 (1090 cash).

ES Futures (7:16am):

1:15am EST:  I’ve been doing some thinking and looking over charts tonight.  There is a good deal of evidence to suspect there will be more weakness going into the fall.  Also, since P1 lasted 13 months, P2 should last about last at least 5 to 6 months.  So I’m going to change my primary count to the 3-3-5 flat scenario (was alt 1).  For this primary count, 1041 in late May was the [A]-P2 low and we are now in [B]-P2 headed up to the 1220 by early August.  The final [C]-P2 low should be in the 1010 area (38% retrace of P1)  by early October.  Near term for this count we are in wave (4)-A-[B]-P2 with a target of 1090 (50% retrace) to 1100 (38% retrace).  I’m looking for (5)-A-[B]-P2 to rebound to the 1150 to 1170 area by mid-July. 

For the alternate count ( in red) the 1042 early June  low was the truncated wave (5)-[A]-P2 low of a large 5-3-5 Zig-Zag.  This 5-wave [A]-P2 was a leading diagonal, that often occurs in the A-wave positon of a Zig-Zag.  We are now working on the [B]-P2 wave that should be a 3-wave move and retrace 78% of [A]-P2.  I have A-[B]-P2 complete today at 1131.  Near term I’m looking for B-[B]-P2 to retrace to the 1090 to 1100 area.  Then wave C-[B]-P2 should finish out in the 1150 to 1170 area in mid-July.  After the 1150/1170 high, the wave [C]-P2, 5-wave drop should be severe going into the October time period.  I have a target of 943 (50% retrace of P1) for this altenrate P2 5-3-5 ZZ scenario.  Worst case for this alernate P2 count would be an extension down to 870 going to early 2011.  

Here are the updated charts for the primary and alternate counts:

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):

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