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June 18th, 2010: Update 4 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on June 18, 2010

4:47am EST:  For the primary count my thinking is that 1121 today was the b-leg of a-b-c, 3-3-5 expanded flat for wave (2).  For an expanded flat the b-leg should exceed the a-leg peak of 1119 by b=1.2a, which is 1122.  And the c-leg should be an aggressive 5-wave drop of magnitude c=1.62 for a target of 1098.  The lower dark blue channel line will be in the 1090 to 1095 area on Monday.  The 1090 value is a 38% trace of wave (1).   Remember this primary count has target  levels above 1150 in July and above 1220 for August.

For the 1st alternate count (3-3-5 Flat off 1220 high), I have this current wave continuing up towards 1130/1150  in wave A-[B]-P2.  B-[B]-P2 would retrace to 1105/1115 in early July and C-[B]-P2 would reach the 1220 by August.  After that [C]-P2 would be an agressive 5-wave drop back down to 1040 later this fall.

Note, I have added a new bearish 2nd alternate count (5-3-5 Zig-Zag of 1220 high)  that assumes the 1042 on June 8th was the end a failed 5th wave for [A]-P2 of a large Zig-Zig.  For this count the move up would have wave A-[B]-P2 compete at 1119.  Next we are looking for B-[B]-P2 down to about 1080 to 1090 next week.  Then C-[B]-P2 would conclude with a move to 1140/1150 in July.   After 1150 we are expecting a large 5-wave [C]-P2 drop to the 950 area later this fall.  The 950  area is the target if wave [C]=[A].  This 2nd alternate count is what to watch for if we get to the 1150, stall and turn back down hard.

Have a nice weekend!

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

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