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May 10th, 2010: P3 Underway?

Posted by pugsma on May 10, 2010

6:05pm EST:  I have a couple likely counts, both of which are looking pretty good.  I will still give the nod to the primary count for now.  They are both pointing to at least one more wave up to a higher high than 1163.85.  We should be able to start to differential betwen them during the next significant wave down.

For the primary count the surge at the end of today seems to confirm my thinking that we were in wave-iv-C-[B]-P2 for most of today. The push up should be wave-v and I have two targets of 1174 (v=0.62i) and 1190 (v-i). There is also a gap to be filled at 1181 and a 78% retrace target of 1182. So we have pretty good target range of 1174 to 1190. But all wave-v needs to do is exceed the wave-iii high of 1163.85 to be a complete 5-waves up. And there is a lot of resistance in the 1168 to 1177 band. After this wave C-[B]-P2 completes, I’m looking for A-[C]-P2 down to about get underway with a first target below 1105. We will know this C-[B] wave up is over once 1129.32 is breached.

For the alternate count where the P2 low is 1067, I have the count as wave (5)-1-[1]-P3. Again with the targets in the same 1174 to 1190 area. Once this wave 1-[1]-P3 completes, I’m looking for a retrace back to down at least 50% to the 1114 area for wave 2-[1]-P3. There is a large gap in the 1110 to 1120 left from today’s gap up open that could be the the target. We will know this wave 1-[1] is complete is 1137.24 is breached. Obviously, P3 is just getting underway the the ultimate target for P3 could be a past 1575 in the months to years to come.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

9:20am EST:  Here is a possible count on the ES Future 5-min Chart.   The ES Futures hit 1161.75 (1164.75 cash equiv.) so the 1162 (62% retrace) taget for [B] of the primary count has been met.  The next target is the 1182 (78% retrace).  However, it is possible that my speculation that 1067 was the low for P2 is gaining some legs this this morning.   The ES Futures 5-min Chart shows a possibe 5-wave count of the close of 1110 on Friday.   We will need to watch the 1134 and 1129 levels to see if that hold on any down-side move today  Near term, 1129 is the most critical level to hold to maintain the rally higher in this wave.

SP-500 ES Futures 5-min Chart (8:23am EST):

3:04am EST:  No not that P3, the bullish P3!!!  Remember my call from Friday May 7th for the alternate count of a P2 low at 1067?  Next stop SP-500 1575+.   🙂     What better way to kick off P3 than a 40 point gap up open on Monday May 10th.  Obviously, this could be the C-leg of the [B]-P2 retrace.  But it could also be the wave (3)-1-[1]-P3 of then third leg of the bull market.  ES Futures have touched 1147.75 (1150.25 cash equiv).  The key area to watch on the upside will be the 62% re-trace of 1162 and then the wave (4) peak of 1177.  A cross back over 1177 would be extremely bullish.  A failure at the 1162 to 1177 area would be bearish and could mean wave [C]-P2 is underway with a target down to 1010.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (2:43am EST):

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