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May 5th, 2010:

Posted by pugsma on May 5, 2010

6:00pm EST:  Primary count remains unchanged, we have finished wave ii-(1)-5-[5]-P1 this afternoon at 1160.80. We are beginning wave iii-(1) up. This primary count has a quick resolution of 5-[5]-P1 in the next two to three weeks in the 1225 area.

I have had a change of opinion on the alternate count. I just don’t believe P1 has topped. I have had the three white (bull market) channel lines for P1 on my Daily chart since Aug 2009. We have yet to trade below the lower channel line. The Feb 5th low of 1045 turned around right at the lower channel line without me having to modify the line. Notice that the SP-500 has traded in the lower half of the channel since the Feb 5th low.   The 1220 high occurced right at the mid-channel line and now the SP-500 is moving toward the lower channel line.  Right now (May 5th) that lower channel line is a 1138 and it will be around 1145 late next week. The large Head and Shoulders projects to this 1140 area. The C=1.62A for 4-[5]-P1 projects to this 1145 area. There is a 62% retrace of wave 3-[5] at 1136 and a 50% retrace at 1154. So all that said, my alernate count (purple) is that we are in a wave (4)-C-4-[5]-P1 triangle here between 1158 and 1177. We have had legs a-b and are working on c-leg up. After a few more days rattling around inside the triangle, we will drop in a wave (5)-C-4-[5]-P1 down to the 1140/50 area some time next week. Then we’ll start wave 5-[5]-P1 up to a final target of 1250 to 1275. If we drop down to the 1140/50 area for this alternate count, then I’m projecting the final 5-[5]-P1 rise to take a most of May and June and finish out in July.

Right now both of those counts are about equally likely, although I will stick with a 70/30 weighting that 1158 will hold as the low and the primary count is correct. The positive (if you are bullish) is that I’m nearly 100% condfident that we will see a higher, high for P1 in the 1225 to 1275 range.

It will take a break below my lower white channel line for me to call that the P1 top is in (so somewhere below 1140 in the next week) and a break of 1112 confirms the P1 top by E-wave rules.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-miin Chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):

12:45pm EST:  The premium service subscribers have been seeing this updated chart this morning.  The primary count as v-C-4-[5]-P1 ended at 1158.15.  I believe the move up to 1176 was wave i-(1)-5-[5]-P1.  Currently in a drop to the 1168 area for wave ii-(1).  And then wave iii-(1) should take out the key levels of 1181.62 and 1186.32 on the way toward the 1190/1200 area for wave (1)-5 completion.

SP-500 15-min Chart (12:35pm):

8:35am EST:  ES Futures have traded down to 1163 (1166 cash equiv.).  A breach below 1168 in the cash markets would result in another leg down for wave v-C-4-[5]-P1 with a target in the 1154/63 area.  A push above 1186.32 would confirm the move down is over the primary count.  For the althernate count we would have wave (3)-1-[A]-P2 continuing down to the 1150/55 area.   A push above 1181.62 would confirm the wave down of the alternate count is over.

SP-500 ES Futures (8:01am):

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