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May 4th, 2010:

Posted by pugsma on May 4, 2010

5:00pm EST:  The 50-day SMA and 1168 pivot from 2005 held as support.  A late afternoon lower low at 1168.12 was bought heavily into the close.  My leaning is 60/40 that wave v-C-4-[5] is complete for the new primary count (was 2nd alternate EOD yesterday).  However, if 1168 is taken out early tomorrow the next logical target is 1154 were wave v=i.   Below 1150, I would lean toward the new alternate that P1 topped at 1220.  In which case, the SP-500 is in wave (3)-1-[A]-P2.   Looking for (5)-1-[A] to end near the head and shoulders target of 1140.

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

1:30pm EST:   Watching the 50-day SMA and 1168 pivot from 2005 for support.  Notice the 50-day SMA did not hold as support in Jan 10.  It did for one day then sliced right through it with another big drop the next day.  Well history repeat?

SP-500 Daily Candles (1:23pm EST):

11:00am EST:  The primary count and 1st alternate were eliminated on the break of 1186.32 and then 1181.62 this morning.  We are tracking the 2nd alternate as the new primary.  Here is a look at the 15-min chart from 5-3-10 EOD, that the premium subcribers saw yesterday afternoon.  No labels have been moved and this mornings price action has been added.  We are tracking the 2nd alternate labels fairly close today.  However, I had only a 20% confidence level on this 2nd alternate at EOD yesterday, and 50% weighting on the primary count and 30% on the 1st alternate.  So I definitely missed on this call.

SP-500 15-mnin Chart (10:45am, with Labels from EOD 5-3-10):

9:05am EST:  ES Futures traded down to 1186 (1189 cash) and are falling rapidly this AM.  The 1186.32 level is a keep to hold for the primary count an the first 1st alternat (purple) large triangle.  There is a gap at 1186.32 to 1189 from yesterday to act as support.  A breach of 1186.32 and the 2nd alternate (red) is in-play and the prices could be headed for 1170 (C=A) or 1140 (C=1.62A). Also the Head and Shoulders neckline is at 1180 with completion a target of 1140.

SP-500 ES Futures (8:31am):

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