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Apr 30th, 2010: April Ends

Posted by pugsma on April 30, 2010

4:50pm EST:  Bearish close to be sure. I have to move to a 50/50 confidence stance between the primary and alternate counts. We had 78% re-trace move up to 1209 and now a 78% re-trace down to 1186. This could still be the primary count wave (2) low and up we go in wave (3) toward 1125/30. However, these type of wild swings says triangle to me. So I have added a new contracting triangle option to the alternate count for wave 4-[5]. Maybe we have the D-leg up to 1205 and E-leg down to 1193 yet to come. If we don’t get a push any lower on Monday and start to head back up then back down, the triangle count will look very attractive. The 34-day EMA has moved up to 1183 and it will be the next key to hold.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

8:52am EST:  ES Futures were in tight range overnight, 1202.5 to 1207.8 (1206.5 to 1211.8 cash equiv). This is typical of a wave-iv. First quarter GDP came in-line at 3.2%. Not particularly market moving. I suspect we might hang in this wave-iv of (1)-5 for most of the day. Some type of triangle my form. We could have to wait for for Monday to see the wave-v of (1)-5 completion in the 1212/1215 area. Conversely, if we start to head a little lower in the cash market down to the 1196/1198 area, then wave (1)-5 could be over and we could be seeing the wave (2)-5 drop today and Monday will begin the wave (3)-5 move.

April was another suscessful month in staying on the correct side of the trade for the PUG Alert Newsletter Service.  If you would like to join for May, then send me an e-mail pu_gridiron@yahoo.com .

SP-500 ES Futures (8:30am):

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