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Apr 27th, 2010: Ending Diagonal?

Posted by pugsma on April 27, 2010

9:20 pm EST:  Here’s quick look at the bigger picture of what may lie beyond P1 for P2.  The maximum P1 top I have currently have is 1277.  Assuming 1220 was the top of P1 I have placed some P2 targets onto the Daily.  However, I fully expect P1 to resume it’s upward march to towards the 1235 to 1275 area by late May or early June.  In which case the P2 targets will be revised upward.  Also, I expect P2 to be a simple [A]-[B]-[C] Zig-Zag.

SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):

6:15pm EST:   I count 5-waves down off the 1219.80 high. The last wave-v is similar in length to wave-v. It’s possible this wave 4-[5] flat has ended at 1181.62 this afternoon. However, there is a potential for this wave-v to stretch dwon towards 1172 (C=1.62A). Once finished, I’m expecting a wave (1)-5-[5] move up to begin that should push up towards 1200. In the alternate count (shown in red) where P1 topped at 1219.80, 5-waves down for wave (1)-1-[A] is complete at 1181.62 and we should see a bounce of at least 50% for wave (2) towards 1200 or 1206 (62%).

Also, there is a potential for a large rectangle to have formed between 1180 and 1220 could take weeks to play out in a wave 4-[5] consolidation, similar to the Nov-Dec 2010 rectangle.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

1:05pm EST:  The break through of the green lower trendline and the 1200 level of support, indicates that the alternate count for the wave 4-[5] expanded flat should be moved to the primary count.  The target for C=1.62A is 1172.   The SP-500 has hit 1187.38 thus far.  I believe waves i-ii-iii of C are complete and are currently working on wave-iv of C.  The new alternate count is that Primary Wave 1 (P1) concluded at 1219.80 on Monday, Apr 26th and wave are in wave (1) of 1 of [A] of P2.    P2 could play out as a large [A]-[B]-[C] corrective.

SP-500 15-min Chart (12:45am):

8:45am EST:   The ES Futures traded down to 1202.20 (1206.2 cash equiv.) and is making a case for the ending diagonal count for wave 5 of [5]-P1.   Wave (3)-5 may have ended yesterday at 1219.80.  Wave (4)-5 looks to be targeting the 1200/05 area.  Support is at the 13-day EMA 1202 and the 20-day SMA 1195.  A break under 1195/1200 and the alternate count for the expanded flat down to 1172 is in play.

SP-500 ES Futures (8:05am):

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