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Apr 23rd, 2010: The Future New Highs

Posted by pugsma on April 23, 2010

5:45pm EST:  Here are the updated 15-min, 60-min, and Daily charts. The primary count is wave iii-(3)-5-[5]-P1 is underway. Target for 5-[5]-P1 completion is the 1235 to 1238 area sometime around May 5th. 1235 is where W5=W1 and 1238 is the Inverse H&S target. For the alternate count, I have decided to go with the ascending triangle for wave 4-[5] with a minumum target of 1244 for completion around May 25th. Although since this alternate is only in wave i-(1)-5-[5]-5-P1, there is possibility for an extention up to the 1275 (W5=1.62W1) area. Also, the reason I chose the ascending triangle for wave 4-[5] of the alternate count is that there is alternatation with the wave 2-[5] Zig-Zag.

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SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):

3:30pm EST:  Potential break-out move during the final hour of trading.  SP-500 has hit a new recovery high of 1215.67 this afternoon.  We have had a 15-min candle close over the previous high of 1213.92 and now need a 60-min candle, which would also be the EOD close, over 1213.92 to confirm the break-out going into Monday.   Another bullish Monday on tap?  Maybe a super bullish Monday?

SP-500 15-min Chart (3:30pm):

11:00am EST:   Here is the updated 15-min chart. Notice that the run up to 1213.42 this AM could have been the D or B leg of the ascending triangle. If it’s the D-leg just one more drop for E-leg and then up and out. But if it’s only the B-leg then this could drag into next week with additinal consolidation between the 13-day EMA at 1198 and the 1214 flat top of the ascending bullish triangle.

SP-500 15-min Chart (10:45am):

3:55am EST:  ES Futures have traded down to 1198 (1201 cash equiv). Looks like the E-leg of the wave 4-[5] triangle in the alternate count could be playing out out. There is an inverse head and shoulders on the ES Futures that projects to 1220 (1223 cash equiv.). I would think the cash market will try to hold 1198/1200 this morningl as the 13-day EMA is at 1197 at the close of 4-22.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (3:23am):

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