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Apr 22nd, 2010:

Posted by pugsma on April 22, 2010

4:40pm EST:  If you are not a follower yet, and you appreciate my blog posts continuing throughout the day, then please use the link to the right to become a follower of this blog.  Let’s ramp the number of followers up and keep making more trading profits :-).   Also, thanks for all the great intra-day comments.  Some great discussion and ideas are coming out in the comments section.  Keep sharing your ideas and thoughts so all of us can learn and profit from it.

4:25pm EST:   Wow, a 20 point bullish reversal from 1190.18 to 1210.27 on the SP-500! You don’t see those every day. Bears covered their shorts around 1197 today and added fuel to the fire.  Both the Nasdaq and Russel-2000 set new highs today. The DOW-30 and SP-500 will likely follow in the near term.

Primary count has the SP-500 in wave iii-(3)-5-[5]-P1. Target for 5-[5]-P1 completion is 1225 to 1235 (near where W5=W1).

Alterante count has the SP-500 in wave i-(3)-5-[5]-P1 or D-4-[5] (ascending triangle option). Target for 5-[5]-P1 completion is 1250 to 1275 (where W5=1.62W1). If the ascending triangle plays out, then maybe a drop to test 1198/1200 in the E-leg before launching higher. The triangle target would be 1214 + 40 = 1254.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):


11:45am EST:  As I stated in my initial AM update, maybe another large contracting triangle for the alt 4-[5] count.

SP-500 15-min Chart (11:35am):

11:00am EST:  The 20-SMA (1190) contained the drop lower this morning.  And the SP-500 is back trading near the 13-day EMA of (1195).  If the low of 1190.18 holds up today, then here is the bigger picture 60-min chart that I see as relavent.  The new lower green channel line on the chart looks to be very important, and in hind-sighgt the drop to 1184 last Friday may have been 4-[5] as shown in the alternate count.  Either way, if we can hold above 1190 the rest of today, it could set the stage for some impressive SP-500 gains over the next few weeks to a month.

SP-500 60-min Chart (10:50am):

8:25am EST:  ES Futures traded down to 1192.20 (1195.20 cash equiv).  Looks like a good chance the 1198/1200 gap will be closed in the early trading today.  I’ll be watching for the 13-day EMA at 1195 to hold as support.  This area would be the b-leg of (3)-5-[5] of the primary count.  Also, watching for a possible wave iii down of the c-leg of the 3-3-5 flat alternate count (purple).  If the 13-day EMA support at 1195 is crossed then the alternate count heading towards 1181 would be in play.  I’m also considering the possiblity of a large contracting triangle for the alternate count for wave 4-[5], in this case it would stop short of 1181 at about 1188/92.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (7:34am):

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