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Apr 20th, 2010:

Posted by pugsma on April 20, 2010

5:00pm EST:  Nothing changed going into the close. Maybe one more push up towards 1210/12 in wave v of the c-leg of the flat for wave (2) primary count or wave-b of the 1st alternate count.  There is gap at the 1212 area that could be the target.  If 1213.92 is exceeded, then the primary count and 1st alternate count are invalid. The 2nd alternate is looking better as this wave up continues. I have us in wave 1-(3)-5-[5]-P1 of the this 2nd alternate count.  We should see wave 2-(3) pull-back to about 1195/1200 after the wave 1-(3) peaks around 1210/14.   Ultimate targerts are 1235 for (3)-5 and 1275 for (5)-5 just ahead in May.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

2:55pm EST:  Looking at the Daily Candle Chart there are some bearish warning signs in the technicals.  The MACD is still in a bearish cross configuration and the histogram bars are below the zero line.  The Full STO is still on a bearish cross.  The RSI is well below it’s peak.   This technicals on the chart would tend to indicate that the SP-500 should continue to fall after this bounce.  The chart also “looks” like 1214 was the 3-[5] peak and we are in a wave 4-[5] pull-back for the 1st alternate scenario.   However, the bullish closes above the 13-day EMA would support the 2nd alternate count.

SP-500 Daily Chandle Chart (2:45pm):

1:45pm EST:  I have re-labeled the primary count for wave (1) down to 1186.77, then wave (2) as an expanded flat (3-3-5) move 1197.10, 1183.58 and 1208.58.  This 5-wave move up to 1208.58 was a back-test of the broken light blue channel line from Feb 5th.  We should start to see a hard sell-off up in wave (3) down or wave-c down of the primary and 1st alternte counts with lows below 1183.58.   The 2nd alternate count has 5-waves up off 1183.58 for wave 1-(3).  For the 2nd Alternate, we should see a wave 2-(3) pull-back towards 1195/1200 and then a bounce in wave 3-(3) to new highs above 1214.

SP-500 15-min Chart (1:45pm):

 9:55am EST:  Here is the updated 15-min chart with the open higher today up to 1205.65 in early trading. So far the 78% retrace target of 1207 for wave (2) of 1-[A]-P2 has contained the move for the primary count.  This aggressive move higher today, just maybe a back-test of the busted ligh blue channel that has been in force since the Feb 5th lows.  However it could be something much more bullish and I have added back the alternate #2 count (in yellow) for the wave (2)-5-[5]-P1 drop to 1183.68.  This would mean we have entered wave (3)-5-[5]-P1 and new highs above 1214 are coming near term and fortells of potential P1 highs upwards of 1275 later in May.  Now that he 1200 level as been recaptured, holding above 1200 as support will be very bullish and help to confirm the alternate #2 count is correct.  Consersely dropping back under 1200 would be bearish.

All three counts the primary, 1st alternate (purple) and 2nd alternate (yellow) are in play.

SP-500 15-min Chart (9:50am EST):

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