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Apr 19th, 2010: Key Day

Posted by pugsma on April 19, 2010

3:55pm EST:  Both the Primary and Alternate counts are in sync wih a move up toward 1199 (50% retrace) to 1207 (78% retrace) in the next day or two and then a drop towards 1150 to 1165 going into next week.  From there the two counts start to diverge as the primary heads much lower towards 1130 for wave 1-[A]-P2 and the alternate will be setting a new high above 1214 in wave 5-[5]-P1.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

 1:50pm EST:  I only see 3 waves down of wave v of (1), so maybe one more drop to about 1181 or as low as 1177 (pivot).  Then wave (2) back up to 1195/1200.  Looking a potential double shouldered H&S pattern with neck-line near 1181 and target down to about 1150.

SP-500 15-min Chart (1:30pm):

11:55am EST:  With the drop below the 1186.77 low of Friday, we now have 5-waves down.  Alternate #2 in yellow is invalid now.   This would be wave v of (1) of 1 of [A] in the primary count with a target of 1181 to 1185.  For Alternate #1 (purple) this would wave v of a of 4-[5].  Once this wave v drop is over, we are looking for wave (2)-1-[A] to retrace back up to 1200.  And for the alternate count the onc wave v of a is over, we are looking for wave b back up to 1200.

10:05am EST:  So far no new lower low under 1186.77, and thus only 3-waves off the top of 1214.  Alternate #2 (yellow) count for wave (2)-5-[5], now shows a possile i-ii of (3)-5-[5].  Also, on the daily candle chart you can see that the 13-day EMA (1191) is holding as support thus far. This is a bullish sign.  So, until 1186.77 is taken out, the Alternate #2 is alive and kicking.

SP-500 Daily Candles 4-19-10 (10:03am):

8:07am EST:  ES Futures have traded down to 1182.70 (cash equiv 1186.70), which is right at the Friday cash market low of 1186.77. The key today is to see if we get a new low below 1186.77 for a 5th wave down in the cash market. If we do, then it eliminates the alternate 2 (yellow) count for wave (2)-5-[5]. If we get the 5th wave down, then we either have (1)-1-[A]-P2 of the primary count or wave a-4-[5]-P1 of the 1st alternate count (purple). In either of those counts, we could expect a bounce back up to around 1200 in wave (2) or wave-b.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (7:43am):

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD, 7-16):

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