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Apr 15th, 2010: Tax Day

Posted by pugsma on April 15, 2010

4:45pm EST:   Nothing new and exciting to add to the 11:45am post.  Still looks like wave (3) has wrapped up at 1213.92 today or alternately there is a small wave iv-(3) triangle forming that could push wave v-(3) to 1220.  Either way, I’m still looking for wave (4) to pull-back to the 1200 to 1205 area before wave (5) runs up towards 1225 to 1235 next week.

SP-5000 60-min Chart (EOD):

11:45am EST:  The alternate count with the ending diagonal died on the vine today with crossing of 1212.90.  The primary count is the only one left standing and appears correct.  That’s why I call it the primary count.  πŸ™‚   For those watching at home, my primary count is always the preferred highest probability count.  But as people who have followed me for awhile know, the engineer in me wants to show other moderately probable counts as alternates. 

I have simplied the count into wave (3)-5-[5] having ended here at 1213.92 or with a possible stretch to between 1215 to 1220.  Then I’m looking for wave (4)-5-[5] to retrace about 38% to 1200 to 1205.  Holding 1200 is key support for the wave (5) advance.  And a wave (4) break below the wave (1) high of 1191.80 would end this move up off the wave 4-[5] low of 1166.  I have wave (5)-5-[5] targeting the 1225 to 1235 area.   1235 is where wave5 = wave1 for the move from the Feb 5th low of 1045.  I’ve been saying for a while now that I have wave 5-[5]-P1 ending at about 1230 on around April 21st/22nd.

SP-500 15-min Chart (11:30am):

9:25am EST:  ES Futures dipped to 1201.3 (1205.3 cash equivalent) overnight.   I have the primary count as wave 4-iii-(3)-5-[5]-P1 beginning today.  Looking for 5-iii-(3) to reach the 1215 area.   The alternate ending diagonal for wave (5)-5-[5]-P1 is still in play until 1212.90 is take out.   On the moderate sized downside move watch to see if 1200 holds.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-mic Chart (8:31am):

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