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Apr 14th, 2010: Up Up and Away

Posted by pugsma on April 14, 2010

4:35pm EST:   SP-500 and DOW-30 were up 1%, Russel-2000 up 2% and Financials up 2.5%. Yep that what a iii-(3) impulse wave can do.  With a close at 1210.65 and the nature of the impulse up off 1188.82, I would say there is very little doubt now that this is the wave iii-(3) of the primary count. Obviously breaking above 1212.90 would completely eliminate the Ending Diagonal scenario. And as we look for the top of wave iii-(3) and watch a wave iv-(3) pull-back, we now have a level that wave iv-(3) can not violate as wave i-(3) endned at 1199.20. I think wave iii-(3) has a chance to hit about 1215, and iv-(4) could pull-back about 10 points (38%) to 1205, before v-(3) targets 1222.   And wave (4) should pull back to about 1205 again and final wave (5)-5-[5]-P1 would end around 1235.  The road map ahead is laid out on my EOD 15-min chart. I will remove the ED as soon as 1212.90 is taken out.

Also, if you look at the 60-min chart you can see that the wave off the Feb 5th low of 1045 has now entered the targeted termination zone of between 1206 (W5=0.62W1) and 1275 (W5=1.62W1).  I prefer the W5=W1 point of 1235 for the final resting spot of this very impressive wave 5-[5]-P1.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD:)

2:55pm EST:  If you look at the alternate count of the ending diagonal for wave 5-[5]-P1 strictly from the ES Futures perspective, then we have not yet hit the upper channel line. In fact the upper channel touch would be about 4 more points higher from here or ES 1208 = SPX 1212. And the the ED maximum is at 1212.90 SPX. Maybe one more push up at the end of today could to do it?

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (2:34pm):

2:00pm EST:  Very strong move up to 1207.57 today.   For the move up off the Feb 5th low of 1045, W5=0.62W1 at 1206.  Possible over-thrown on the alternate count ending diagonal for wave 5-[5]-P1.  There will have to be a close back under 1204 of the upper trendline to keep this count going in my opinion.  The primary count with this being wave iii-(3)-5-[5]-P1 is in good shape.  Looking for wave (3)-5-[5]-P1 to complete between 1215 and 1122, and wave (5)-5-[5]-P1 to complete between 1222 and 1135.  Also closes above 1200 level now with keep the bullish primary count going.

SP-500 15-min Chart (1:45pm):

8:35am EST:  ES Futures have hit 1198.50 (1202.50) on the back of Intel and JP Morgan earnings beats. We are set to gap up over 1200 resistance.  Now we must determine if the primary count iii-(3)-5-[5] or the ending diagonal alternate count (5)-5-[5] is correct. The ED count is capped to about 1204 today by the upper trend line and capped at a maximum of 1212.90. So if we break decisvely over the upper trend line and maintain the run upward, then the primary count is likely correct. If we struggle with the ED upper trendline or pop over and then retreat quick, then the ED is still a possibility.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (8:15am EST):

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