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Apr 13th, 2010: More Dip Buyers Come In

Posted by pugsma on April 13, 2010

4:50pm EST:  I’m offering the balance of April for $15 if you want to join the PUG Alert Newsletter Service.  Email me at pu_gridiron@yahoo.com to sign up.

4:10pm EST:   Wow, just where do all these dip buyers come from?  The 1188.82 low today, fits well with a wave ii-(3)-5-[5]-P1 primary count.  It was almost a 50% retrace of wave i-(3).  So the bounce today could be the start of wave iii-(3) which has a target near 1215 and wave v-(3) should end around 1222.  We’ll need to see a gap open over the 1200 resistance and follow-through tomorrow if this count is correct.   I still have the 1235 area as my final target for then end of 5-[5]-P1 of the primary count.

As an alternate (purple), we’ll need to keep a close watch on the ending diagonal for wave 5-[5]-P1.   So far we’ve completed waves (1)-(4) of this count and should be working on wave (5), see the 15-min chart from 11:50am.  The ED count is interesting in that it has maximum of 1212.9 and a Wave5=0.62Wave1 target at 1206.  Remmber that ED’s like to have some over-throw in wave (5), so it may look like the wave iii-(3) of the primary count until we get a hard reversal.

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):

12:10pm EST:  Here’s a quick bonus look at my most recent 15-min chart.  The ending diagonal count (in purple) for wave 5-[5]-P1 is growing on me.  According to one analyst I heard this morning, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) on the daily chart of the SP-500 has been above 66 (over bought) for more consecutive days than for any time going back to 1196!  I was just talking about this yesterday on my blog post, but was only looking back to the 2007 peak. This daily RSI is just begging for a correction back to at least the mid-point of 50, so a 30 to 50 point correction should be near.  Maybe just one more push up to 1206/10 in the ending diagonal count will be it.

SP-500 15-min Chart (11:50am EST):

10:10am EST:  ES Futures traded down to 1188(1192) overnight. Looks like a simple a-b-c off the top in the ES Futures, so that looks like wave ii-(3)-5-[5] and up we go again in wave iii-(3).  I would be watching the 1190/92 are in the cash market early this morning.  If we hold there at the lower light blue trend line support, then it’s bullish.  Also, there is another possible ending diagonal pattern I have labeled on the ES Futures chart that would complete wave (4)-5-[5] at 1192 cash and then up to about 1206 to 1210 cash.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min  Chart (8:30am):

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