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Apr 9th, 2010: Another Push Up

Posted by pugsma on April 9, 2010

11:55pm EST:  Taking another look at things tonight; the SP-500 ES Futures traded up to 1193 (1197 cash equiv) after hours.  This is right up against the upper yellow trend line.  Looking again at the ES Futures chart, it’s possible that this entire move up from 1171(1175) to 1193(1197) was wave i-(3)-5-[5] of the primary count and we will get a wave ii-(3) pull-back of 10 to 12 points to 1181/83 (1185/87) on Monday.  This move could also be the a-(5)-5-[5] of the ending diagonal alt count (purple), with a b-leg down and c-wave up yet do come.  Another thing favoring a wave ii-(3) pull-back before iii-(3) begins is the RSI is over 70 on the daily chart with negative devergence to price peaks.  A wave ii-(3) pull-back of 10 to 12 points would help relieve this.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (EOD):

4:45pm EST:  Bulls buying the dips…same as it ever was.  πŸ™‚   So, another new recovery high of 1194.66 was hit.  Looks like the wave ii-(3)-5-[5] was very shallow and wave iii-(3) is underway off the 1188 level.  I have the initial target for iii-(3) at the inverse head and shoulders target of 1209 with the final target near 1235 (W5=W1) for wave (5)-5-[5].  The 1192 neckline was broken near the close, which is a bullish sign.  I’m very close to eliminating the alternate (purple) count of the wave (5)-5-[5] ending diagonal at 1200/06 area (W5=0.62W1).  Let’s see how early next week plays out first. 

Finally it’s baseball time in Chicagoland.  In my spare time between my full-time engineering managment job, running this stock market analysis blog/services, I find time to manage my son’s 14U boys traveling team call the Blaze.  We have our home opener on Sunday.   Wish us luck.   I love baseball, as I played it through 18U and have been managing travel baseball teams for the past decade.  Have a great weekend !  

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):

11:05am EST:   Here’s an updated look at the 15-min chart that subcribers to see updated 2 to 5 times daily.  I’m looking for a wave ii-(3) retrace of 50% (1184) to 62% (1181) of the wave i-(3) move up from 1175 to 1192.  Then wave iii-(3) should target the 1209 area, which is the measured move of the inverse head and shoulders pattern shown in green.  Neckline is at 1192, so when the SP-500 break back through 1192 the move to 1200+ should be underway.

SP-500 15-min Chart (11:00am):

8:35am EST:   ES Futures have hit 1187 (1191 cash) and it looks like another push higher today in wave i-(3)-5-[5] before the wave ii-(3) pull-back.  Recall from the 60-min chart, the primary count has wave (3)-5-[5] reaching a target near 1220 and wave (5)-5-[5] to reach 1235 (were wave5=wave1).  Altenately (purple), wave (5)-5-[5] of the ending diagonal could play out very quickly to the 1200 to 1206 target (wave5=0.62wave1) P1 intermediate top.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (8:30am):

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