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Apr 5th, 2010: Reaction Day

Posted by pugsma on April 5, 2010

5:35pm EST:  Nice positive, bullish recaction to the good Feb jobs number.  SP-500 set a new recovery high of 1187.73 and closed at 1187.44.  Daily chart has erased the negative divergence on the RSI and the MACD histogram bars are positive and rising showing a bullish confirmation of the price action.  Looking for a continued rise out of the wave 4-[5] triangle toward the triangle target 1200 to 1206 level.  The key now is to determine if wave 5-[5] will end at the 1206 area (where wave5=0.62*wave1) or if it continues toward the 1233 area (where wave5=wave1).  And there is an outside chance of a wave 5-[5] extension to 1275 (where wave5=1.62*wave1).  The middle target of 1230 remains the primary target for now.

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily Candles Chart (EOD):

12:55pm EST:  On the 60-min chart SP-500 seems to be struggling at 1187, whish is near the mid-channel line that goes all the back to the March 2009 lows.  I have a couple targets for this wave 5-[5], one is at 1206 where wave5=0.62*wave1.  This 1200 area is also the wave 4-[5] triangle target.   And the other is 1235 where wave5=wave1.  I favor the 1235 target at the moment.

SP-500 60-min Chart (12:45pm):

8:20am EST:  Today the cash markets get to react to the February US jobs number.  The ES Futures hit a new high at 1180.6 (1184.6 cash) and show that the wave 4-[5] triangle break-out is intact.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (8:10am):

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