Apr 5th, 2010: Reaction Day
Posted by pugsma on April 5, 2010
5:35pm EST: Nice positive, bullish recaction to the good Feb jobs number. SP-500 set a new recovery high of 1187.73 and closed at 1187.44. Daily chart has erased the negative divergence on the RSI and the MACD histogram bars are positive and rising showing a bullish confirmation of the price action. Looking for a continued rise out of the wave 4-[5] triangle toward the triangle target 1200 to 1206 level. The key now is to determine if wave 5-[5] will end at the 1206 area (where wave5=0.62*wave1) or if it continues toward the 1233 area (where wave5=wave1). And there is an outside chance of a wave 5-[5] extension to 1275 (where wave5=1.62*wave1). The middle target of 1230 remains the primary target for now.
SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):
SP-500 Daily Candles Chart (EOD):
12:55pm EST: On the 60-min chart SP-500 seems to be struggling at 1187, whish is near the mid-channel line that goes all the back to the March 2009 lows. I have a couple targets for this wave 5-[5], one is at 1206 where wave5=0.62*wave1. This 1200 area is also the wave 4-[5] triangle target. And the other is 1235 where wave5=wave1. I favor the 1235 target at the moment.
SP-500 60-min Chart (12:45pm):
8:20am EST: Today the cash markets get to react to the February US jobs number. The ES Futures hit a new high at 1180.6 (1184.6 cash) and show that the wave 4-[5] triangle break-out is intact.
SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (8:10am):
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