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Apr 1st, 2010: Trapped? Nope It’s Break-out !!!

Posted by pugsma on April 1, 2010

6:20pm EST:  Break-out, Fake-out and then Break-out again.  Wow!   The close today at 1178.10 is above the key 1177 pivot.  So for my primary count things remain the same.  This should set the stage for wave (1)-5-[5] to run up towards 1200 early next week.  1200 is the measured move target for the large symmetric triangle wave 4-[5].  I kept an alternate count (in red) of an A-B-C (3-3-5) flat option for wave 4-[5] that has today’s retest of the 1181 peak as the B-leg of the flat.  Then today’s dip to 1170 and bounce to 1178 wold be a the i-ii of the C-leg down to a target of 1161 (C=).  I don’t think this alternate count has a high probability of playing out on Monday, unless the Feb jobs number tomorrow is a complete disaster.  So let’s keep our eyes on the 1200 prize.  Happy Easter!

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):

9:45am EST:  Well, I spoke too soon.  Looks like a legit attempt at a triangle break-out this morning.   The Keep 1177 pivot resistance was crossed and a slightly new higher high or 1180.97 was hit (vs 1180.68).   Now the key will be to see if a back test of the 1177 resistance has now turned to support, meaning the break-out is going to hold.  Recall that the wave 4-[5] triangle measures 28 points, so the target is 1172+28=1200 on the SP-500.

SP-500 ES Futrues 60-min (9:45am):

8:40am EST:   ES Futures over night still trapped in the large triangle but with an upward bias.  We need to break 1177 pivot to confirm a move to new highs.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min (8:40am):

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