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Mar 25th, 2010: Poised for a New High

Posted by pugsma on March 25, 2010

5:30pm EST:  As mentioned in my mid-day update at 1:35pm (see below) and when the SP-500 was right near today’s peak of 1180, I had feeling that the 1177 pivot was not going to fall so easily.  Sure enough the market’s reversed hard this afternoon and the SP-500 closed back below both the 1177 and 1168 pivots.  Wave 3-[5] is clearly over.  Wave 4-[5] should either carve out the large 3-3-3-3-3 triangle shown on the 15-min chart or some type of 3-3-5 irregular flat, so as to alternate with the Wave 2-[4] 5-3-5 Zig-Zag.  Targets for the Wave 4-[5] range from 1144 (38% retrace) to 1154 (23% retrace).  For the primary count of the large symmetric triangle the wave 4-[5] low of 1153 (23% retrace) was already hit in wave A on Monday morning.  However, if we carve out the irregular flat then the 1144 target could be hit in the 5-wave C-leg that begun today off the 1180 high.

15-min Chart (EOD):

60-min Chart (EOD):

4:30pm EST:  As a follow-up to yesterday’s divergences pointed out on the SP-500 Daily Candle Stick chart, here’s is an update for today.   The divergences between price moving higher and the falling RSI and MACD histogram seemes to be starting to play out with the price now reversing hard late this afternoon.   And we now have a bear cross on the Full STO and a potential bear cross coming on the MACD signal line.  Finally, today’s high at 1180 and then hard reversal left a potential shooting star daily candle stick that will need to be confirmed tomorrow with another red candle.

SP-500 Daily Candle Stick Chart (EOD):

1:35pm EST:  Updated 15-min chart.  My primary thinking is still the large wave 4-[5] triangle with the SP-500 hanging around the 1168 to 1177 long term pivots for a several more days before wave 5-[5] towards 1230 is initiated.

SP-500 15-min Chart (1:35pm):

8:55pm EST:  The alternate count in purple where the wave 3-[5] extends to the (5)=(1) point of 1189 is in play this morning. There is nice parallel up channel for this wave on the ES Futures chart below.  Let’s see if the SP-500 can decisively break the 1177 pivot or if it is rejected at this resistance and we could form an ascending triangle with a flat top near 1175 for wave 4-[5].  Last night I showed the sysmmetric contracting triangle wave 4-[5] but it could also be this ascending flat top triangle.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min (8:30am):

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