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Mar 23rd, 2010: Watching the 1168 Resistance

Posted by pugsma on March 23, 2010

5:30pm EST:  OK, the market voted and decided we are still in wave (5)-3-[5].  This becomes the primary and only count.  So what are some possible targets for wave (5)-3-[5] to end: 1176 (5)=0.62(1), 1189 (5)=(1), and 1212 (5)=1.62(1).  Note, there is another long term (2002) resistance pivot at 1177 and my Inverse Head & Shoulder Target of 1175 that aligns with the first target and may be where this wave 3-[5] finally ends.  But also, don’t be surprised if after a fews tests of 1177, the SP-500 attempts to push through.  Let’s see how tomorrow plays out at the 1176 target before considering the 1189 target.

Once we get to the end of wave 3-[5], I suspect wave 4-[5] will be some type of triangle so that it will alternate with the wave 2-[5] simple zig-zag.  I also think wave 4-[5] will stay above 1150.

15-min Chart (EOD):

60-min Chart (EOD):

Daily Chart (EOD):

12:15pm EST:  I have decided that the evidence is such that the SP-500 is/was in wave 3-[5]-P1 and not 1-[5]-P1, as was previously my primary count.  The fact that the RSI has held above 70 for nearly a week is strong evidence of a 3rd wave.  The only decision now is whether wave (5)-3-[5] topped at 1169.84 last Wed (primary) or if there is is still a wave (5)-3-[5] yet to come (alternate).   If (5)-3-[5] has topped, then we are currently in wave 4-[5] in which case it could become an triangle between 1150 and 1170.  This would make some sense it would alternate with the wave 2-[5], which was clearly a simple ABC Zig-Zag from 1112 to 1086.  Wave 1-[5] was 67 points, so adding 67 to wave 4-[5] likely breakout around of 1160, we get a wave 5-[5] target of 1227.   Here are my updated 15 and 60-min charts.

15-min Chart  (10:45am):

60-min Chart (10:45am):

9:40am EST:   ES Futures were basically flat again overnight.  Lately the there has not been much movement in he futures, which is a significant departure from the normal.  The resitance pivot point of 1168 from Oct 2005 is still holding the SP-500 back.  I have shown my alternate count on the ES Futures chart below.  The 1168 pivot is going to need to be taken out decisively to move this market higher.  Notice there have already be 3 hits on this 1168 level that have be rejected.  If the SP-500 continues to struggle with this 1168 level is possible a wave  (4) triangle will form between 1150 and 1170.  This will allow momentum to build, for the wave (5) push higher.

SP-500 ES Futures (8:30am):

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