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Mar 20th, 2010: Balance of 2010 Overview

Posted by pugsma on March 21, 2010

7:45pm EST:   Looking at the 60-min and Daily charts there are a couple options for how the SP-500 will reach the 1230 to 1260 level over the next couple months.  On Friday the SP-500 fell out of the bullish Elliott channel that it had been in since the 1086 low.  I’ve added a new regression channel in yellow on the 60-min chart.  I expect this next pull-back to very mild whether it’s wave 2-[5]-P1 (primary count) or 4-[5]-P1 (alternate count).  The result of the pull-back in late March will be the push towards the 1230 level by late April.   From there the alternate count tops out at 1230, while the primary count powers onto 1260 by late May to early June.

After the secular bull market Primary Wave 1 (P1) tops around 1230 to 1260 in the early summer, I’m looking for a P2 to retrace back to 1123 (23%) to 1034 (38%) by the Oct/Nov time frame.

SP-500 60-min Chart (3-19-10):

SP-500 Daily Chart (3-19-10):

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