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March 8th, 2010: Consolidation Day

Posted by pugsma on March 8, 2010

4:30pm EST:   Solid consolidation day in the 1138 to 1141 area after Friday’s big run up.  Not much was resolved today in determination of the near term market direction.  For the pimary count, I think wave (5)-1-[5] is going to consolidate above the 1132/33 gap area and then make move towards 1150+.   I have an ultimate target of about 1165 for the inverse head and shoulders on the 60-min chart.   The 1167 to 1175 area is a key resistance area for the SP-500 and it will likely take a future wave 3-[5] to break through this area.  Also, it’s very possilbe that wave (5)-1-[5] has ended at 1141, as the alternate count indicates, and there will be a wave 2-[5] retrace of a least 38% down to about 1105.

Next Wed March 16th is the FOMC meeting announcement and next Friday March 19th is OPEX.  For the past year,  both FOMC and OPEX weeks have been bullish in the early part of the week.  So, if the SP-500 can hold support this week, there is a good chance that new highs in the 1160/65 area could be on the way as wave 1-[5] extends.

60-min Chart (EOD):

Daily SP-500 Bull Model (EOD):

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