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Feb 19th, 2010: Bears in Big Trouble?

Posted by pugsma on February 19, 2010

5:00pm EST:   SP-500 closed above it’s 50-day SMA (1108) at 1109.  The rising wedge is still intact and this wave (5)-1-[5]-P1 looks like it might end as an ending diagonal around 1115 on Monday.  But it could also be finished as of today at 1112.  The 20-day SMA is falling at 1085 but staring to flatten out.  I would expect wave 2-[5]-P1 to drop down near this 20-day SMA around 1080 by mid to late next week.

One thing I noticed tonight on the alternate count is that if [B] end here around 1115 and if [C]=0.62[A] we get a target area of 1050.  This 1050 would lines up with some key support on the 60-min chart in mid-March.  This is another possibility for green wave [4] label, if the 1050 area were to hold on re-test of the 1045 low from early Feb.  So the alternate count can also lead to new up leg of the cycle bull market, without a drop all the way down to the 950 area.

15-min Chart (EOD):

60-min Chart (EOD):

Daily Chart (EOD):

1:45pm EST:   Looks like the SP-500 is wedging higher.  Wave (5)-1-[5]-P1 could be complete at 1112 or could reach up to close the 1115 gap later today or Monday.  Once the rising wedge breaks down, I’m still expecting some pull-back of at least 38% for the wave 2-[5]-P1 to the 1088/90 area next week.  The week after OPEX is typically bearish, so that that should fit the current wave count.

15-min Chart (mid-day):

12:15pm EST:   OK so 75% of the wave (4) drop occured in overnight ES future trading.  The 1092 (1096 cash equivalent) level was tagged overnight, which was a wave (4) pull-back target.  And now the SP-500 is racing to new highs.  If you look at the daily candle chart below, you can see if the 34-day EMA (1097) and 13-day EMA (1091) hold up today and next few days, the bears are in serious trouble.  My primary count has new highs above 1150 are on the way and sooner that most would have thought.   All of the key indicators on the daily time frame are now solidly bullish with lots of room to run higher.

Daily Candles Chart (mid-day):

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