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Feb 11th, 2010: Finally Outside the Down Channel

Posted by pugsma on February 11, 2010

4:45pm EST:  The triangle broke upward today (see 5-min chart) and the net result was a break above the bear trendline at 1072 and break out of the pink down channel off the 1150 high.   Both of these conditions help stregthen the case that we are in the B-leg off the 1045 low and likely we are in the “c of B” portion.  Targets for “c of B” are 1087 (c=a) to 1104 c=1.62a), which closely match the 38% and 50/62% retrace fibs.  I believe we may have completed a 5-wave count for wave “i of c” at 1080 today.  So tomorrow I look for a back test of the 1066/1070 area in a wave “ii of c”.  Then “iii of c” should begin tomorrow and carry into a strong Tuesday rally.  The 1092 to 1095 gap is a tasty bull treat.

The next key area to break above is the 13-day EMA at 1082 as today.  This 13-day has capped all rallies since the Jan 26th when the 13-day EMA crossed under the 34-day EMA.  And the 200-day SMA has moved up to 1023 as the lower support, if a major sell-off were to begin.  The 200-day SMA should reach the key 1029 horizontal support from the Oct 2009 low by the end of next week.  And mn the daily chart the lower white parallel channel line continues to hold as support as well.

And of course there is the alternate count that says 1045 is the bottom of wave [4] of P1 and we are in the begining of wave 1 of [5] of P1.

5-min Chart (EOD):

15-min Chart (EOD):

60-min Chart (EOD):

Daily Chart with Broadening Formation (EOD):

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