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Feb 9th, 2010: Still in the Down Channel

Posted by pugsma on February 9, 2010

8:00 pm EST:  Here is a look at my most up to date 15-min chart.   It shows why I think there is still at least one more push down towards the 1030/40 level coming.  This push down will either complete  wave (5) of A of P2 or complete the 5-wave C-leg of the running flat that is wave [4] of P1.   The wave [4] of P1 scenario remains an althernate count until it’s elminated by a breach of 1029 or it’s confirmed by a new high over 1150.  But I do really like this alternatate scenario that I’ve be blogging about ever since this correction of 1150 began back in late January.  It would fool the most people, bears and bull alike.  But it didn’t fool PUG or his very astute followers.  

On the alternate count side, there is a small up channel forming, so what out for the possibily that wave 1-[5]-P1 is beggining.  We’ll need to close over 1080/85 to start to confirm the alternate count.  This up channel counld also be the large B-leg of the larger A-B-C.

15-min Chart (EOD):

4:45 pm EST:  As hard as the SP-500 tried today, it just could not break-out of the uppler down channel line (see 60-min chart).    And the SP-500 finished the day right at the old Big Bear Trend Line suport/resistance point and just under the 1071.59 Jan 29th swing low for wave (3) of A.  Consequently even with today’s bullish price action, I’m inclined to give the bears the benefit of the doubt.  I just can’t say wave A is complete (and we have entered wave B) until the upper channel is broken.  So price levels down to 1030/1040 are still on the table with this move lower.  Maybe we get a break-out of the channel confirmation tomorrow, but for now I remain bearish.  Also, wave B would need to tag 1085 at a 38% re-trace for me to be convinced as well.  And I think B will actually re-trace closer to 50% at 1097 or even 62% at 1110.  The 13-day EMA at 1085 (EOD) is still keeping a cap on the bullish moves up.  So that is another reason to remain bearish.

60-min Chart (EOD):

Daily Chart (EOD):

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