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PUG Market Alert Newsletter Service to Begin in Feb 2010

Posted by pugsma on January 29, 2010

7:45am CST, 2-1-10:   The Alert Newsletter is up and running with the first alert sent out last night.  If you have not signed on yet and to try it for a few days, before committing to the paid service, then send me an e-mail and I’ll put you on the distribution list for through Wedneday Feb 3rd, 2010 as a free trial.

The PUG Market Alert Newsletter Service free trial run this week was successful.  I beleive it was a useful trading tool for those that participated.  The plan is to launch the service with a monthly subscription fee beginning with February 2010.

What is the PUG Market Alert Newsletter Service:

  • Focused on the SP-500 daily forecast and trading set-ups using PUG charting and technical analysis.
  • Multiple (1 to 5) updates sent via e-mail and/or text messages throughout the pre-market, cash market, post-market and overnight futures hours. (Limited or no updates from 12:00 am to 7:00 am EST. Updates are for days in which USA markets are open).
  • Response to direct questions on markets via e-mail. (This will be done on best effort basis.)
  • Cost: $25 per month.
  • Terms of Service Agreement must be signed in order to participate.
  • E-mail pu_gridiron@yahoo.com for the agreement and to begin the Service.

With the market volatility returning to the markets, watching the critical support and resistance breaks points on the charts is important to getting in and of trades. Based on PUG’s own charts, trend lines and projections, PUG will provide e-mail and/or text alert service throughout the trading day and evening hours as PUG sees an important support or resistance break and trading set-ups.

This service is provided on a “best effort” basis. All updates will be made as often as possible based on PUG’s judgment on what is important. There can be “acts of God” and other circumstances that occasionally occur that could prevent PUG from making alert updates.

Below is a Sample of the PUG Market Alert Newsletter Service from Jan 29th, 2010:

PUG SMA Alert #1 for 1-29-10, before midnight on 1-28-09

The after hours markets sold off heavily after the close today. SP-500 ES futures hit 1075.20 (1079.20 cash equivalent). Today’s cash market low was 1078.46. We could have a double bottom in place for a rally up in the morning on a good Q4 GDP number. Any number over the expect 4.5% will send the markets soaring, imho. And if the ES futures hit around 1072 (1076) overnight then they will hit my lower falling wedge trend line on the 5-min chart.


This could be another time were the lows (for wave v of (5) of A) happen overnight and we rally at the open. We have to watch for any rally up and over 1087 area tomorrow in the cash market. It could indicate the bottom of A is in. I’m looking for a B-leg peak of between 1100 and 1105, so it should be fairly weak.

PUG SMA Alert #2 for 1-29-10 @ 12:15am CST

Well, if your still up ES futures have not hit 1070.50 (1074.50 cash equiv). If you went short late today, as I suggested, might be a good trade, you have picked up a 17.5 point SP-500 drop for a nice profit. If your an ES futures trader you may want to cover your short here soon. If my Ending Diagonal Count is right, this wave v of (5) of A can’t go below 1071 cash (1067 ES futures). So a bounce may be coming soon.

PUG SMA Alert #3 for 1-29-10 @ 6:30am CST

For those of you that went long the ES futures last night on my call of the low at 1070.5 (1074.5 cash equiv.), you have about a 12 point profit right now as the ES futures are at 1082 (1086 cash equiv). You might want to book the profits here and wait for the GDP and markets to open. Your call though, if you want and try and let the profits run, assuming a strong GDP number.

Here’s the deal. On the upside keep watching for a break over by pink down channel line. It’s at 1091 at the cash open and falls to 1083 by the end of today. If we can decisively break over this line, then the B-leg up may well be underway. On the downside the target is still the 1071 area for v of (5) of A in the cash market. This could happen if the GDP number disappoints badly.

PUG SMA Alert #4 for 1-29-10 @ 7:40am CST

Q4 GDP initial prints at 5.7% or 1.3% over consensus of 4.5%.

ES futures are up to 1088 (cash equiv of 1092) or just at or slight above the upper pink channel. If you held through the news, then you are up 18 points since my bottom call last night. Round trip you made 17 points on the short call late yesterday and 18 points off the bottom call. And on the upside, this thing could continue to run some more today.

FYI, since I don’t trade futures, So what I did was buy UPRO ( 3x SP-500) at about 6:45 pm after market when ES was about 1075 and just sold out at 1088. I did not get to play the down side call, but made a nice profit on the upside. I need to set-up a futures account !

So the key now is do we break the upper line today and really run for a while. I have no clear call on this. One thing I will say, is that the trend has been to sell the rips on this 8 day long down trend. Big change from the buy the dips of the past 9 months. Today will be a real test to see if this new trend is really in place or was only temporary. I big run up today will embolden the bulls and could like to an up start to next week. Let’s watch it closely.

PUG SMA Alert #5 1-29-10 @ 9:10 am CST

SP-500 has hit 1093.38 thus far and is just over pink channel line. Could be a possible bear flag on the 1-min forming that would also coincide with wave iv of (5) of A top. See 1-min chart.

I took a conservative SPY put position here at 1093 with a very tight stop at 1096. If the market breaks up, I won’t be hurt much. But if we get the sell the rip drop later today towards 1071 it will be profitable.

PUG SMA Alert #6 1-29-10 @ 1:00 pm CST

SP-500 sure looks like it wants to put in that new low below 1078.46. See the updated 1-min chart with 2 hours to go today. Feels like the market wants to sell-off into the close and hit the 1071 to 1075 target.

PUG SMA Alert #7 for 1-29-10 at 2:05 pm CST

OK SP-500 new low at 1075.44 which is inside the 1071 to 1077 target area for the v of (5) of A ending diagonal (see chart).

I’m going long here into early next week as a trade looking for a bounce to at least 1090 and maybe 1100-1105 for B-leg counter-rally. However, realize it is very risky to go long here, if the SP-500 closes below the 1083 to 1085 key support. It opens the door for a wash out on Monday to much lower levels towards the next key support of 1029. I’m willing to the take the risk with bout 30% of my trading funds.

PUG SMA Alert #8 for 1-29-10 @ 2:50pm

Final alert for the day. 1071.59 looks like the low. This partially closed the gap at 1073 from early Nov rally. Nasdaq also closed part of it’s gap in the same area.

Take a look at my 5-min chart update. Sure looks like a classic End Diagonal for wave (5) of A. 1071 ED target held perfectly. We should rally up into early next week in a B wave counter rally.

To be clear, I’m 30% long now in my trading account from the 1075 area.

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