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Jan 28th, 2010: Watching 1103.69 Level for Resistance

Posted by pugsma on January 28, 2010

3:45 pm (CST):  The intermediate term trader death cross signal (13-day EMA vs 34-day EMA) strengthen today.  This shows a clear change in the intermediate term (few weeks to a month) outlook.  I would say the 200-day SMA (currently at 1012) and rising will be tested.  Probably near the 1029 horizontal support level in a couple weeks.

SP-500 13-day EMA vs 34-day EMA (EOD):

3:05 pm (CST):  Well, the SP-500 closed below at key level of 1085 after hitting 1091 late in the day.   The end of day way count argues for a pretty ugly (bearish) day tomorrow.  Primary count has us in an ending diagonal for wave v of (5) of A with a drop to about 1070 coming tomorrow.  There is also a falling wedge in play that targets this same 1070 area for the end of wave (5) of A.

 However, one thing I don’t show on my 5-min chart for an alternate count is, what if the i-ii-iii-iv of the ending diagonal is really a i-ii, i-ii count?  Then we’ll see a massive iii of (5) of A down tomorrow!  We could see levels in the 1060 range then.  And in my alternate count, what if the B-leg is is in at 1103.69 and we are in the aggressive C-leg down?  We could keep going toward the 1030 to 1040 target over the next week or two with almost no pull-back.  See the 15-min and 60-min charts.

1-min Chart (EOD):

5-min Chart (EOD):

15-min Chart (EOD):

60-min Chart (EOD):

2:05pm (CST):  Possible ending diagonal count for (5) of A.  Key level to watch for the close today is 1093.  A close under 1093 is bearish.  A close over 1093 is bullish.

1-min Chart: (2:05pm):

11:00am (CST):   Key Break of the 1083 to 1085 Aug-Nov 2009 Support !!!  We are either finishing up (5) of A or we have began the C-leg down as I speculated yesterday.  Either way there is more downside to follow.  Next stop will be the 1073 gap area after a test of the 1085 break point.  

If you look at the updated 15-min chart you can see that today’s movement down stopped at the Bear Trend Line from the 1575 Oct 2007 high.  I don’t expect that this will hold as support for very long.

5-min Chart (11:00am):

15-min Chart (11:15am):

8:45am (CST):   As I speculated last night, the market remains very weak here.   The key level to watch all day is 1103.69.  If that level holds as resistance, the SP-500 down trend is likely to continue.

Also, remember that Dec 31st, 2009 ended at 1115.  So Jan 1st, 2010 began at 1115.  For the bulls to have black candle for Jan 2010, they need a close over 1115.   There could be a good fight for this level over the next two days.  As goes January, so goes the year?

Finally a close low under 1093 today, will seal the deal that the down trend will continue a good while longer.

5-min Chart (8:45am):

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