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Jan 26th, 2010: Bullish Turning Point Soon?

Posted by pugsma on January 26, 2010

5:00 pm (CST):  SP-500 is still holding inside key channel lines regardless of wave count.  1083 is the key level and it’s held up thus far.

SP-500 Daily Channel Lines:

4:45 pm (CST):  Both VIX And McCellan Oscillator are flashing a BUY signal today 1-26-10.  VIX closed back inside it’s Bollinger Bands today and look at what happen to the SP-500 after this VIX BUY signal the previsous 4 times since the August 2009.  McCellan is below the oversold level of -60.  Also, McCellan showed a small move today, which can mean a large move in the stock market is about to transpire.

VIX Daily:

McCellan Oscillator Daily:

4:15 pm (CST):  The primary count is that today’s new low of 1089.86 is the end of wave (5) of A and today we put in a of B to 1103 and b of B to 1091.  I project c of B to take the SP-500 to at least the 1115 gap area in the next couple of days and it could hit the 1125 gap area.  The alternate is the we completed wave (4) of A at 1103 today and we are now in wave (5) of A down to the orginal 1082 target area.

One of the main reasons I think wave (5) of A is down is the overnight futures hit 1081 on the ES or about a 1085 cash market equivalent (see yellow dot on 5-min chart).  There was some heavy selling overnight in the SP-500 futures contracts that could have been in the bottom of this wave down.

Tomorrow is the FOMC meeting.  As of late the market as been up going into the meeting and sell-off after the news.  I think tomorrow we’ll be be flat to slightly up into the meeting and then a potential pop up after the meeting and going into the end of the week.  Most of the class TA indicators and Oscillators are indicate a “buy” signal now.

5-min Chart:

10:55 am (CST):  New low of 1089.86 is possible wave (5) of A completion and we are begining wave a of B up towards the 1115 to 1125 area.  However, I’m sitll watching out for the possility of a wave (4) descending triangle forming.  Need to watch the 1102 to 1103 level to see of wave (4) triangle completes and we break to new lows for wave (5) of A.

5-min Chart: (10:45am CST):

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