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Jan 14th, 2010: New Closing High 1148.46

Posted by pugsma on January 14, 2010

4:30pm:  To be honest, the strength of the market today surprised me.  No signs of any selling pressure yet.  And of course we hit a new intra-day high of 1150.41 and closed at a new high to 1148.46.  I should be even more bullish, right.  Well, yes and no.  I still think the top of this wave is coming soon.  I think later next week (1/22 to 1/25) is where we top at between 1160 and 1170.  However, I have to throw the poor bears a bone tonight.  The market has been much too hard on them lately.  We “could” get a gap and crap tomorrow as the top.  That is my new alternate count for a day.  🙂   This wave (1) might want to extend to about 1155 in the morning and then pull-back.  Looking for the 1140 area as wave (2) target.  We shall see.  But with the VIX hitting a low of 17.38 today, things are getting ripe for a pull-back and a larger pull-back is becoming over due.  Stay nimble and watch your trades closely if you chose to stay long or go long.

5-min Chart (EOD):

15-min Chart (EOD):

60-min Chart (EOD):

12:20pm:  I think there will be some selling pressure into the close today for wave (2) of 5 down or wave c of 4 down.   Looking for targets from 1140 all the way down to 1130, depending on the wave.  I re-drew the lower channel line a littel wider after looking at the 60-min chart again.  There is some more room for this wave 4 to complete a c-leg down if it needs it.

INTC reports after the bell today and JPM bere the open tomorrow.  So this earnings news should set the tone for Friday’s trading.

5-min Chart (12:20pm):

9:30am:  The push up off 1131.77 was apparently not quite over and we are testing the previous high of 1149.74 in what could be either a wave (1) of 5 or a possibily still in a b of 4.  As noted yesterday in my EOD update, a trading range between 1130 and 1150 could set up if this wave 4 needs longer to playout in a larger a-b-c or even a traingale a-b-c-d-e.  Primary count is that we are in (1) of 5 and we should get a wave (2) pull-back to around 1138 to 1140.

5-min Chart (9:30am):

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