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Jan 13th, 2010:

Posted by pugsma on January 13, 2010

4:50 pm: I should know better than to even start discussing bearish counts.  Sorry for losing my focus for a moment today.  πŸ™‚

I now believe the break-out of the large triange (rectangle 1085 to 1113) was a wave 3 of [5] of P1 and not a wave 5 of [5] of P1.  This wave 3 may have ended at 1150, with a wave 4 pull-back to 1131.77.  I count a 5-wave impulse off the 1131.77 low from yesterday, see 5-min chart.  I think we have just begun the wave (1) of 5 of [5] of P1.  This 5 of [5] of P1 should take the SP-500 to 1170  in the next week or two.  That is now my primary count.  The alternate count is even a more bullish count that still us in wave (3) of 3 of [5] of P1, after a series of (1)-(2) to get things started during the rectrangle break out.   This larger alternate wave count would take the P1 to around 1200 some time in late Feb to early March. 

One thing to watch for is that this wave 4 could extend in time and end up as a triangle between resistance at 1150 and support at 1130, before wave 5 of [5] of P1 begins.  However, since wave 2 of [5] of P1 was a large triangle (rectangle), the quideline of alternation what save that this wave 4 should be a simple a-b-c.

In summary, I now think wave [5] of P1 is going to be come to an end in a quick burst up to the 1170 to 1200 area a lot sooner that the June 2010 estimate I had before this current wave extended.  Does anyone feel sorry for the CRUSHED BEARS yet?  πŸ™‚

5-min Chart (EOD):

15-min Chart (EOD):

60-min Chart (EOD):

12:30pm:  It’s pretty obvious with the past couple of days action, that there is now tremendous new support above 1130.   This should set the stage for the alternate count to play out with fresh new highs over the coming week or two.

15-min Chart (12:30pm):

11:30am:   Apple dipped to $204.1 and held $203.4 gap support.  AAPL is at $208 and climbing and be in wave 1 of [5].  Goldman dipped $166.12 and turned around and could be starting the wave 3 of [5].

60-min GS Chart (12:00pm):

60-min AAPL Chart (11:30am):

10:15am:  I’m been re-thinking things slightly.  1130 is not the key level to the downside, 1113 is.  I believe the SP-500 may be in a wave 4 of [5] of P1 here with 5 of [5] of P1 yet to come in the next week or two.  The target for this final aggressive move would be in the 1170 area.  This still my alternate count (purple), but unitl I see 1113 taken out to the down side it’s very much a good possibility.  The primary still has the SP-500 peaked at 1150 for wave 1 of [5] of P1 and we are begin the wave 2 of [5] of P1 re-trace back towards 1075.  If this is the case then we have a long way to go both in terms of time and price for 5 of [5] of P1.  Like 6 months and about 130 more points to a target near 1260.

15-min Chart (10:35am):

60-min Chart (10:15am):

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