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Jan 8th, 2010: Are We There Yet? Maybe, Maybe Not…

Posted by pugsma on January 8, 2010

3:50 pm:  Looking at the 15-min chart everybody will want to claim this is “The Top”.   It looks like a perfect ending diagonal completed at 1145.39 late this afternoon.  But not so fast, my friends.  There is some more room under the upper channel line for a 8 to 9 point gap up on Monday morning to complete this wave (5) at the 1154 maximum threshold.   And what’s typically happened on Monday’s since March 2009?   And what’s typically happened on options expiration weeks since March 2009?   You got it.  Bulls Rock On !

And since almost no one in Elliot Wave Blogland will show the alternate bullish counts, take a look at my updated 60-min and Daily charts with the count in purple.  The stairway to heaven (1200+) leads dirrectly through the “Lehman Vacuum Gap”.  Enjoy your weekend  !!!

15-min Chart (EOD):

60-min Chart (EOD):

Daily Chart (EOD):

9:55 am:  If the SP-500 breaks down from here and the 1142.46 high is not taken out, the alternate count for the ending diagonal is likely the correct count.

5-min Chart (9:55am):

9:12 am:  Based on the dip down to 1136.75 early this morning, I think that was the bottom of wave iv of (5).  So, I’m looking for one more push up to about 1144 to 1146 to complete v of (5), see the 5-min chart below.   After the wave (5) completes we need to be watching for the rising wedge break and then the 1130 level to comfirm this push up is over.  Also, we need to watch for a  break-out over 1154 to confirm the alternate more bullish count is in play.

5-min Chart (9:20am):

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