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Dec 31st, 2009: Happy New Year !!!

Posted by pugsma on December 31, 2009

First off, I hope you and yours has a great 2010 and may 2010 be your best year ever !  I also want to thank everyone who visits here and especially those who contribute via comments.  I really do appreciate the participation and new ideas.   Let’s ramp up the comments for 2010 and have even more interaction.

So there were some profit takers left on the last day, last hour of 2010.  Hmmm…   How did you like my wave (4) target call of 1115 to 1119 from earlier this week?  Did you hang onto your shorts long enough to make some money?  🙂

The SP-500 hit 1114.81, which is just a smidge above the 1114.76 wave (1) peak.   So wave (4) would have to end as of today, Dec 31st, 2009 if we are going to get the classic EW 5 wave move up to new highs above 1130.  This scenario #1 would likely mean a gap up on Monday, Jan 4th.   I’m not so sure about that.  Seems that there might be a new wave of profit takers arriving on Monday, now that the some serious weakness has shown up.  In that case the Ending Diagonal scenario #2 ( in light purple) is the most likely case now.  That would mean a further drop to the 1103 to 1105 area by EOD Tuesday, Jan 5th.  We probably see some sort of rebound on Monday, before heading lower.  And of course the new scenario #3 (in light red) where 1130 is the top of this wave 1-[5]-P1 is now very much in play.  There is new upper light red channel to watch for in this case.  And in which case we could see continued weakness for the next 6 to 8 weeks into late Feb or early March.

Below is a complete chart dump for the end of 2009.  So we have some key levels to watch out for early next week and some new targets.  Again, I’d like to wish everyone a prosperous and happy new year !    And of course Boiler Up !   🙂

1-min Chart:

5-min Chart::

15-min Chart:

60-min Chart:

Daily Chart:

Here is an updated 15-min chart showing the additional option (alt count in light red) that I discussed last night, where this thrust out of the rectangle is complete at 1130.  I new down-channel (like red) could be forming.  It even looks like it could be a leading diagonal (LD) for new move much lower.  We are going to need watch the 1115-1119 level first, then 1105-1110 (ending diagonal option, alternate count in light purple).

15-min Chart (11:45am):

The SP-500 made an ever so slightly new low at 1121.75 this morning.  It looks like my call from the EOD on Tuesday is playing out to the “T” or should I say A-B-C.  🙂  

I’m expecting a little more downside pressure today to aournd 1119.

1-min Chart (10:30am):

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