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Dec 30th, 2009:

Posted by pugsma on December 30, 2009

OK, sticking with the horse you rode in on is always the best policy.  Today’s action was almost to the letter what I laid out on my 1-min chart EOD yesterday.  So here is the updated 1-min chart EOD today with the same count.

We made a lower, low today at 1122.  I’m still expecting one of the two scenario’s laid on Dec 24th to play out for this wave (4) corrective.   Scenario #1 targets the 1115 to 1119 area (probably tomorrow) or scenario #2 targets the 1103 to 1105 area for the ending diagonal (probably middle of next week).  Could the 1121.93 low today be the end of wave (4)?  Sure it could.  And off to the wave (5) target of 1141 we go into early next week.  I guess that would be scarnario #3.

1-min Chart (EOD):

15-min Chart (EOD):

60min Chart (EOD):

Maybe a symmetric triangle for wave iv of c of (4)?

1-min Chart (2:10pm):

Possilbe falling wedge on the 5-min chart.

5-min Chart (11:45am):

There are many different ways to look at things to spot trend changes.  I always like to check the daily candle stick chart for confirmation of changes that might play out over the next 3 to 5 trading days.  On the daily candle stick chart for December, you can see how the indicatos for RSI and MACD peaked out at the wave (3) 1130 area earlier this week.  Now the MACD histogram bars are beginning to trend downward again.  This should allow for a few more days of down side price action.  1117 is the target, but lower the channel could be hit sooner rather than later and allow for a drop into the 1110 to 1112 area.  This 1110 area is where the 20-day SMA sits today.   Getting down to the 1110 area would mean the ending diagonal is in play.

Daily Candle Stick Chart (10:25am):

Market opened gap down and hit 1121.93 as the low so far today, then rebounded to 1126.29 and closed the gap.   As I predicted in the Dec 29th EOD 1-min chart, this would be an a-b of the 2nd a-b-c move of the complex corrective.  I’m still expecting a final c-leg down to the 1115 to 1119 area.  If c=a, then the target is 1117.

1-min Chart (9:10am):

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