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Longer Term Count 12-29-09

Posted by pugsma on December 29, 2009

I’ve been asked to put up my longer term count.  My current thinking is that we are in a new cylical bull market that began in March of 2009. 

My primary count is that we are just finishing up wave 1 of [5] of P1 at about 1141 and wave 2 of [5] of P1 should retrace about 62% of wave 1 or back down to about 1065.  This wave 2 would last into late Feb or early March.  From there, I’d expect to wave 3 of [5] of P1 to challenge 1200 by late Apr to early May.  And finally wave 5 of [5] of P1 to touch the 1250 area by about July 2010.

As an alternate count, if the 1029 area is taken out during the 1st quarter of 2010, then I would say we had entered P2 and P1 ended right here in the 1141 area.  P2 should re-trace back down about 38% of P1 or down to the 960 area.

SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD 12-29-09):

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