Dec 17th, 2009: EOD Charts
Posted by pugsma on December 17, 2009
Closed right at a key support level of 1096. Hmmmm…
From a bullish stand point, let’s recap what happened post FOMC meeting announcement:
- 1116 to 1096 is a 62% retracement for Wave (2)
- Filled the 1096 to 1100 open gap.
- Held just at the large triangle lower boundary.
From the bearish perspective:
- 1119 high was not taken out.
- 5 Waves down off the 1116 point.
- 20-day SMA was broken at 1103
Tomorrow becomes a very critical day if the end of year bullish count is going to hold up. 1096 must hold and strong move up should begin. If 1096 falls, look for a test of 1085 again. 50-day SMA is at 1087. And this time if 1085 falls, I believe a much deeper retrace could be coming. There is still a chance that Wave [4] of P1 did not end at 1029 and the SP-500 is tracing out a large expaned flat with A-leg from 1101 to 1029, b-leg 1029 to 1119 and the c-leg has begun from 1119 to a 1000/1020 target area (see 60-min chart). This 1000/1020 could be hit in the early Febuary time frame and would be were the 200-day SMA is by that time frame. This alternate Wave [4] of P1 is a count I have been carrying for a while, but had removed it from the charts recently.
I’m still bullish going into mid-January 2010 and looking for new highs in the 1140 range by then, but if 1096 then 1085 falls that will change drastically.
15-min Chart:
60-min Chart:
Daily Chart:
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