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Dec 17th, 2009: EOD Charts

Posted by pugsma on December 17, 2009

Closed right at a key support level of 1096.  Hmmmm…

From a bullish stand point, let’s recap what happened post FOMC meeting announcement:

  • 1116 to 1096 is a 62% retracement for Wave (2)
  • Filled the 1096 to 1100 open gap.
  • Held just at the large triangle lower boundary.

From the bearish perspective:

  • 1119 high was not taken out.
  • 5 Waves down off the 1116 point.
  • 20-day SMA was broken at 1103

Tomorrow becomes a very critical day if the end of year bullish count is going to hold up.   1096 must hold and strong move up should begin.   If 1096 falls, look for a test of 1085 again.  50-day SMA is at 1087.  And this time if 1085 falls, I believe a much deeper retrace could be coming.  There is still a chance that Wave [4] of P1 did not end at 1029 and the SP-500 is tracing out a large expaned flat with A-leg from 1101 to 1029, b-leg 1029 to 1119 and the c-leg has begun from 1119 to a 1000/1020 target area (see 60-min chart).  This 1000/1020 could be hit in the early Febuary time frame and would be were the 200-day SMA is by that time frame.  This alternate Wave [4] of P1 is a count I have been carrying for a while, but had removed it from the charts recently.

I’m still bullish going into mid-January 2010 and looking for new highs in the 1140 range by then, but if 1096 then 1085 falls that will change drastically.

15-min Chart:

60-min Chart:

Daily Chart:

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