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Dec 3rd, 2009: EOD Charts – P1 Top at 1117 ?

Posted by pugsma on December 3, 2009

Well, well, well…The primary count is looking mighty fine after the up-channel line break near 1108 at 3 pm today.  This morning I said to watch for the a channel break in the 1105 to 1107 area to confirm the down trend.  After the break this afternoon, the SP-500 sold off hard in a wave iii of wave (1) down (see 1-min chart).  There is likely more to go for this wave iii, before a wave iv bounce.  I would expect this wave (1) motive 5-wave impulse to end around 1090 to 1995 some time tomorrow.

The 20-day SMA is at 1097 and there is a gap between 1093 and 1097.  So there is some support in this area.  But I would look for this gap to be filled by this wave (1) move.  We have to watch this 1096 area, as it’s a 62% retracement of the move from 1083 to 1117.  So the alternate count is not quite dead just yet.  A print below 1083 will completely kill of the alternate count.

For now, I will call that the top of P1 is in at 1117.  This is very close to a 50% retracement (ie. 1121) of the entire move down from 1575 to 666.  This broad top makes for a launching point to begin the P2 corrective that should last 3 to 9 months and see the SP-500 touch it’s 200-day SMA.

1-min Chart:

15-min Chart:

60-min Chart:

Daily Chart:

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