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Nov 30th, 2009: Morning Update – Lots of Options on the Table

Posted by pugsma on November 30, 2009

I’ve spent some time this morning looking things over in more detail this morning.  There are still quite a few legit options on the table.  I will discuss three of them here in order or preference:

  1. Primary Count (White/Green):  Wave [5] of P1 has topped at 1113.  We are now starting P2, which could take the form of a large A-B-C zig-zag or something more drawn out like a triangle wave.  If we have entered P2 on Nov 16th, 2009, I would expect this corrective to last from 3 months to 9 months (so late summer 2010).  I do not expect P2 price action to correct very deep (maybe 38%).
  2. Alternate Primary Count (White/Green):  Wave (1) of [5] completed at 1113.  This current price action is part of a drawn-out a Wave (2) of [5] A-B-C flat.  We have a little more down side in the C-leg to about 1075 to 1080 and then we start back up in Wave (3).  Ultimately Wave [5] could top out later in December at about 1140 to 1150.
  3. Alternate Count (Purple):  We are still in Wave [4] and the c-leg of an large A-B-C runing flat off 1101 is playing out to a conclusion in the 1060 to 1070 area.  After this Wave [5] of P1 will begin and count reach levels in the 1200 range early in 2010.

For now there is just no good way to tell where things are headed.   It’s a very confusing area of this rally.  And my best advice is to just sit it out until a direction becomes more clear.

15-min Chart:

60-min Chart:

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