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Nov 19th, 2009: Morning Update – Trend Change

Posted by pugsma on November 19, 2009

OK, so the triangle for wave iv did not play out.  Triangles are always tricky.  The triangle broke down through the 1103 and 1097 key support area quickly this morning.  And the SP-500 made fresh lows at about 1088.

My current thoughts are this: 

  • Primary:  Could be the start off the c-leg down to finish off Wave [4] at 1050.
  • Alternatte:  Could be the c-leg of an a-b-c for wave 2 of Wave [5] down to 1081 (38% retrace) or 1071 (50% retrace).

We will need to watch to see where the rebound happens before deciding which option is mostly likely. 

A couple other key things to watch.  SPY Max Pain for Nov OPEX is 108 = 1080.  The 20-day SMA is about 1075 and the 50-day SMA is at about 1068.   Both rising.  This could provide some support in the 1070 to 1080 area as well.

5-min Chart:

15-min Chart:

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