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Oct 30, 2009 – Afternoon Update – A-Wave Ending?

Posted by pugsma on October 30, 2009

Update After the Bell:  Nothing changed between 3:30 and 4:00 pm, so the 60-min and daily charts posted below stand for the EOD counts.  It’s possible there will be a another 5 to 6 point drop to 1030 on Monday AM, as the small triangle completes and there is a trust out of it for the 5th and final wave of this move down.  See the 1-min chart below.  Early next week should be up with a possible B-Wave target of about 1080.  Enjoy your weekend.

1-min chart:

Well, Mr Market took back what it gave away yesterday.  So we are back to where we were on Wednesday, Oct 28th.  The market is clearly in a corrective/consolidation mode.  Oct 30th is year end for many long mutual funds, and profits are being locked in.  So none of this action is surprising.

I’ve been expecting this corective pull-back to the 1030 to 1050 area for over a week now.  However, after looking at things a look more precisely this afternoon, I can see a couple equally likely outcomes.  Either the corrective pull back ends here with my alt: 4 (purple count) and we move towards finishing up with alt: C at about 1120 in mid-November.  Or the correction continues with the end of A-Wave here at 1030 and we move into a B-Wave back towards 1080, that finally colminates in a C-Wave down to about 1000 to 1010.  This C-leg would represent the end of the larger Wave [4] (green count).  And this would allow the market to move towards a higher target of 1150 to 1200 later this year.  This is still my preferred count. 

I think this correction/consolidation when complete will look very much like the correction/consolidation in late June that was the Wave [2] (green count) on my dialy chart.

Updated 60-min chart:

Updated Daily Chart:

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